“Alberto came to win and, quite honestly, so did I”

Lance Armstrong, 7th July

Only last week Lance was claiming he was nothing more than a domestique deluxe in the Astana team, and that Contador was the leader. This was re-stated by Bruyneel at the start of the Tour. We’d all questioned his age, his time away from top-level competition, his ‘beach weight-lifting with celebrity buddies’ size, his broken collar bone, his improving but insufficient form from the Giro. But – by the same token – would this man really come back to ride his beloved Tour de France and play second fiddle to anybody, three-time grand tour champion or otherwise?

Just four days in and – already – Lance is only fractions of a second from the maillot jaune and looking ominously good. He looks lean, he looks strong on the bike, he seems to be orchastrating Astana’s tactics whilst using his experience to eek out time gaps on Contador and co. And finally – despite his pre-Tour protestations – he has admitted he is there to win.

Together the Astana team are making this Tour impossible for other contenders: one has to question the options remaining for Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and arguably the Schleck brothers – all between 1.41 and 2.59 back already on Lance. Denis Menchov’s Giro form – and luck – seems to have dried up, and despite much promise Michael Rogers (the best placed of possible non-Astana challengers) has always struggled on the big climbs.

Whilst putting Lance in yellow would have been nice, it does mean that – crucially – Saxo Bank and not Astana will be shouldering responsibility for the leaders jersey and the peleton in general. This means Lance and team will be fresh come Friday. The ITV4 team speculated that this was intentional (see Lance shifting down gears just before the line as the 5th man in their TTT finish); that the man can judge things to fractions of seconds is severely doubtful. But Lance oozes such control and authority that – with his pedigree for mind games and tactical nouse – it’s almost believable that even this, and the leadership battle, could be planned Armstrong/Bruyneel tactics to confuse rivals and aid his victory cause.

Now, Lance is saying the Astana team leadership will be discussed – or re-discussed – after the stage to Andorra. The Tour often throws up surprises, but if I were a betting man I’d place my money on a Lance v Contador show down for the GC win. And I just can’t help feeling that the wise old owl Armstrong will come out on top yet again!

Who will win Le Tour?

The Classics season is over. The Giro’s finished. The Dauphine Libere starts this coming weekend. Most of the early season favourites have shown form of some description, but this remains the most open of Tours in years. So who is going to win?

Contador goes into the Dauphine – traditionally Lance’s Tour warm up event – as one of the favourites and has an opportunity to be the genuine Astana (or whatever their name is come July 4th) team leader. Levi’s early season form seems to have deserted him, but Astana look incredibly strong and – as mentioned in my Giro reflections – I wouldn’t write off Lance just yet. The Schleck brothers looked very good – bar Frank’s crash in the Amstel Gold race – in the Classics, but will either trascend the status of young prospect and mount a serious yellow jersey bid? Can Menchov challenge in a second successive grand tour? Is Basso up to the task as he continues his come back? Does Evans have the ability to go one better than 2008? Will Sastre improve on his Giro form and retain his title?

Here are the latest odds.

So far 75% of you think Contador, making him the undisputed favourite. Vote now!

Who do you think will be the winner in Paris?

Giro reflections

The centenary edition of the Giro didn’t let us down: the return of Lance (sorry, I shouldn’t mention that first); a fascinating classically mountainous route stretching the length of the country; great crowds supporting the Italian riders; a race that went down to the wire. Hats off to Denny Menchov. Not only was he cool as a cucumber in the Italian sunshine, stalking Di Luca, Pellizotti, Sastre, Basso and co, but he also managed to win Stage 12 and upstage his closest challenger Di Luca several times at crucial times in the race.

Even the final stage – that was meant to be a straightforward showcase 14k time trial through Rome – heightened the drama with a tense rain-affected ride, Di Luca choosing a road bike and putting 5 seconds into Menchov at the first time check, and then Menchov (just 20 seconds ahead at the start) inexplicably hitting the deck within the final kilometre only to remount and retain the Maglia Rosa.

Menchov celebrates Giro victory

If there was skepticism over Menchov in the past (and in particular fueled by the 2005 Vuelta win post-Heras disqualification), this performance surely puts him amongst the top few in any grand tour he enters. Carlos Sastre also reinforced his credentials for retaining his Tour title with a terrific Giro and two great stage wins. Pellizotti looks like he could be a genuine challenger amongst the top echelons of cycling, and in particular to the returning Ivan Basso in the Liquigas team.

And what of Lance? Despite Cycling Weekly seeming to be firmly on the ‘anti Lance’ bandwagon (see recent unnecessarily partisan issues covering the Giro), I subscribe to the ‘innocent until proven guilty’ doctrine. Yes I’ve read David Walsh, and almost every other Armstrong book out there. But the man has come back after three years, broken a collar bone, and then returned just five weeks later to put in a very good showing in a grand tour living with the best in the high mountains and finishing 12th in the GC. Yes he looks a little heavy, no he hasn’t been particularly attacking, yes he’s 38, no he’s not looking as dominant over an ITT course. But would anyone discount his chances of an 8th Tour win? Not me.